According to the latest production forecast of the National Commodity Supply Company of Brazil (CONAB), the total production of Brazil in 2022/23 is expected to be reduced to 2.734 million tons, down 49,000 tons or 1.8% from the previous year (March forecast 2022 Brazilian cotton area of 1.665 million hectares, up 4% from the previous year), due to the main cotton region Mato Grosso state cotton planting area is expected to be reduced by 30,700 hectares from the previous year The total production was revised downward in the absence of any adjustment in yields.
In the January 2023 report, CONAB expects Brazilian cotton production in 2022/23 to reach 2.973 million tons, up 16.6% from 2021/22, the second highest on record, with a difference of 239,000 tons between the two reports. Compared to CONAB, the Brazilian Cotton Growers Association (ABRAPA) is much more optimistic. Recently, Marcelo Duarte, director of international relations of ABRAPA, said that the new cotton planting area in Brazil in 2023 is expected to be 1.652 million hectares, a slight increase of 1% year-on-year; yields are expected to be at 122 kg/acre, an increase of 17% year-on-year; production is expected to be at 3.018 million tons, an increase of about 18% year-on-year.
However, some international cotton traders, trading companies and Brazilian cotton exporters judge that ABRAPA’s 2022/23 cotton production or overestimation, the need to properly squeeze out the water, for three main reasons, including the following:
First, not only Mato Grosso State cotton planting area did not meet the target, another major cotton-producing region of Bahia State due to weather, food and cotton competition for land, cotton planting inputs rise, higher uncertainty about returns and other factors sowing area is also lower than expected (farmers expand soybean enthusiasm on the high side).
Second, 2022/23 Brazilian cotton yields are forecast to increase by 17% year-on-year is the key to El Niño phenomenon occurred when the main cotton producing areas in Brazil is “more winter rainfall, more abundant precipitation during the growing season of cotton” characteristics, conducive to the growth of cotton under high temperatures. But from the current point of view, Brazil’s eastern region less rainfall, more drought, or drag the legs of cotton yield growth.
Third, the 2022/23 year crude oil and other energy prices, fertilizer and other agricultural materials to steadily increase the cost of cotton growing, Brazilian farmers / farmers management level, physical and chemical inputs or weakened, unfavorable cotton yields.
Post time: Apr-19-2023
