Kusukela kulo nyaka, ngenxa yobhubhane oluphindaphindayo, ukwanda kwe-geo-conflict, ukushoda kwamandla, ukwehla kwamandla emali, ukuqina kwenqubomgomo yezimali kanye nezinye izici eziningi eziyinkimbinkimbi ziyaqhubeka nokuba nomthelela ekuwohlokeni komnotho womhlaba kancane kancane, ingcindezi yohlangothi lwesidingo ibaluleke kakhulu, ingozi wokuwohloka komnotho kwenyuka kakhulu.
Ekupheleni kwekota yesithathu, imboni yezimboni yomhlaba wonke yaphenduka inkomba, i-September JP Morgan Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) engu-49.8, okokuqala ngqa kusukela ngoJulayi 2020 yehla ngaphansi komugqa we-Rongkuk, lapho inkomba yama-oda amasha. ingu-47.7 kuphela, ukuzethemba kwebhizinisi kwehle kuye kwehle okusha ezinyangeni ezingama-28.
I-OECD Consumer Confidence Index imile ku-96.5 kusukela ngoJulayi, endaweni encipha izinyanga eziyi-14 zilandelana.
Inkomba ye-barometer yohwebo lwezimpahla emhlabeni wonke yahlala isezingeni le-100 kwikota yesithathu, kodwa njengoba kukalwa yi-Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB), ngaphandle kwezici zentengo, amanani ohwebo emhlabeni wonke ehle ngo-0.9% ngoJulayi futhi akhuphuka kuphela 0.7% ngo-Agasti kusukela ngonyaka odlule.
Ethonywe ukuqiniswa kwe-liquidity kanye nokwehla kwezomnotho okulindelekile, amanani entengo yempahla yomhlaba wonke yehla kancane kancane ngemva kuka-Agasti, kodwa izinga lentengo lilonke lisesezingeni eliphezulu, futhi I-IMF Energy Price Index isakhuphuka ngo-55.1% unyaka nonyaka ngo-September.
Ukwehla kwamandla emali akukakalawulwa ngokugcwele, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lase-US linyuke kakhulu ngoJuni liqhutshwa yizici ezinjengokunciphisa ukukhula kwamaholo futhi lehla kancane kancane, kodwa izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali ngo-Okthoba lisephezulu njengoba lifinyelela ku-7.7%, izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali ye-eurozone lika-10.7%, isigamu yamazwe angamalungu e-OECD izinga lokwehla kwamandla emali lifinyelele ngaphezu kwe-10%.
Umnotho omkhulu waseShayina umelane nomthelela walolu bhubhane futhi indawo yangaphandle iyinkimbinkimbi futhi inzima, njengomthelela wezinto eziningi ezingaphezu kwalokho obekulindelwe, imizamo yokulungisa ukulahlekelwa.Njengoba izinqubomgomo kazwelonke zokusimamisa umnotho kanye nezinyathelo zenqubomgomo ezilandelanayo seziqala ukusebenza, ukusimama komnotho omkhulu kanye nomfutho wentuthuko engcono kunekota yesibili, ikakhulukazi imakethe yokukhiqiza kanye nezidingo zasekhaya iyaqhubeka nokufudumala, ikhombisa ukusimama okuhle kwentuthuko.
Ezigabeni ezintathu zokuqala, i-GDP yaseShayina ikhule ngama-3% unyaka nonyaka, izinga lokukhula ngamaphesenti angu-0.5 ngaphezu kwengxenye yokuqala yonyaka;isamba sokudayiswa kwezimpahla zabathengi, inani elengeziwe lezimboni lamabhizinisi elingaphezu kosayizi ongu-0.7% no-3.9% unyaka nonyaka, izinga lokukhula elingu-1.4 kanye namaphesenti angu-0.5 amaphuzu aphezulu kunengxenye yokuqala yonyaka, ngokulandelana.
Ukuthunyelwa kwempahla kanye nokutshalwa kwezimali kufinyelele ukukhula okuzinzile, izingxenye ezintathu kwezine zokuqala zesamba sempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle yaseShayina (ngamadola aseMelika) kanye nokuqedwa kokutshalwa kwezimali kwempahla engashintshi (ngaphandle kwabalimi) kukhule ngo-12.5% kanye no-5.9% unyaka nonyaka ngokulandelana, okwenza umnikelo omuhle ukuzinza kwe-macroeconomic macro.
Nakuba umfutho wokusimama komnotho omkhulu waseShayina, kodwa ukukhula kwenzuzo yebhizinisi lezimboni akukakaphenduki kahle, intuthuko yokukhiqiza ngaphansi kwengcindezi yokubuyela emuva, isisekelo sokusimama sisazoqina nakakhulu.
Amakota amathathu okuqala, ukuhlinzekwa kwemboni yendwangu kanye nengcindezi yesidingo kuzo zombili iziphetho zesitaki, izinkomba zokusebenza eziyinhloko zehlise izinga lokukhula.Ngemva kokungena enkathini yokuthengisa ephakeme kakhulu ngo-September, ama-oda emakethe anyukile, ezinye izingxenye ze-industry chain start rate ziye zanda, kodwa umkhuba jikelele wokusebenza kwemboni awukabonakali izimpawu ezicacile zokuphuma phansi, imizamo yokuthuthukisa nokubonisa ukuthuthukiswa kokuqina. , ukuvimbela okuphumelelayo kanye nokuxazulula izinselele zobungozi kusewumgogodla wemboni.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Nov-26-2022
